Contribution by Euler Hermes.

What to Watch?

  • Global trade momentum and political intervention
  • Indications of demand strength, particularly in China, but also in construction and automotive
  • Management of overcapacities

As a whole, after a weak 2018, the outlook for the metals sectors is mixed. Economic trade uncertainty has compounded the problem of slowing metal-consuming industries. Metals is one of the most exposed sectors as far as the impact of protectionism is concerned.

Steel demand growth will weaken considerably as a result of a slowing economy and uncertainties over trade. While there is still growth in the automotive sector, its reduced rate will weigh negatively. At the same time, the outlook for construction, one of the most important end markets, remains mixed despite moderate growth in a number of large markets. Strength from the machinery sector is unlikely to outweigh that.

The World Steel Association forecasts 1.4% y/y growth for 2019, compared to 3.9% demand growth for 2018. Chinese demand is expected to be flat.

Steel prices continue to reflect overcapacity, while iron ore prices pressure margins. Earnings are still being revised downwards. The current consensus stands at a 14% y/y earnings decline.

Aluminium also presents a patchy picture. There is a risk that the Chinese aluminium market might flip into excess capacity as capacity gets commissioned in despite curbs and Russian producers see sanctions eased. The sector should see demand growth in the order of 3%, according to guidance by some of the major producers for 2019, with aerospace a positive driver. There is potential for a global production deficit, also due to production outages. Yet, margins are tight because of raw material prices, and the scope for aluminium price recovery appears limited.

Copper will to a great degree depend on the success of Chinese stimulus measures. An increase in supply may curb price increases, though, and balance the market. Further USD appreciation will have a negative impact on all metal prices. Margins are likely to compress in the mining sector, due to weak prices, to the tune of 300bps at Ebitda level on 12% y/y revenue decline in 2019 according to current consensus (source for all consensus data: Bloomberg). Nevertheless, the sector is cash generative, and with net debt standing below 1.0 on average for the global peers, they should be able to deploy such cash into incremental capex, in the order of 5-8%, chiefly going into equipment replacement.

Iron ore: A correction is likely after prices have come off a peak in early 2019 and the demand outlook is patchy.

Steel companies: Global overcapacity but the high level of import taxes protects some specific markets such as US and Canada.

Nonferrous: The sector is cash rich on the back of strong prices. The LME Index has risen 17% in 2018.

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Marco Arrighini 
Senior Sales Manager

Euler Hermes Switzerland | Via A. Adamini 10A | CH-6900 Lugano | Switzerland

marco.arrighini@eulerhermes.com 
www.eulerhermes.ch 
t +41 91 922 73 64
m +41 79 501 43 44

Contribution by KPMG.

Federal vote 


On 19 May 2019, the Swiss public will vote on the Federal Act on Tax Reform and AVS Financing (TRAF). The tax reform, which Parliament has linked to a social compensation measure concerning AVS financing (Old Age and Survivor’s Insurance), provides in particular for the abolition of internationally no longer accepted tax regimes and for the introduction of transitional and replacement measures. However, these measures have met with rejection in certain political camps. In addition, the combination with additional AVS financing has mobilized further opponents.

Background 


Like its predecessor – the Corporate Tax Reform III (CTR III), rejected by public vote on 12 February 2017 – TRAF pursues the same three main objectives: to maintain the attractiveness of Switzerland as a business and tax location, to promote international acceptance of the Swiss corporate tax legislation and to ensure sufficient tax revenues to finance public activities. Therefore, some elements of the CTR III are still included in the new proposal. Other elements have been added subsequently in order to create a balanced reform that – hopefully – meet with acceptance.

The potential impact to commodity traders 


The main measures that could have a relevant impact to the Commodity Traders is the abolition of status companies at Cantonal level (Mixed Company status). It is well established that Cantons usually granted the Mixed Company status to the Commodity traders (Art. 93 of the Ticino Tax Act, “società ausiliaria”), excluding part of the income generated abroad from Corporate Income Tax and allowing a lower taxation on equity.

The abolishment of cantonal tax statuses will lead to an increase of the applicable tax rate for companies that previously enjoyed privileged tax status. To prevent the shock, TRAF include a transitional measure and allow a smoother transition from the privileged to the ordinary taxation.

Disclosure of hidden reserves (step-up)


For companies changing status, transitional measures provide for two possibilities to prevent over-taxation of hidden reserves. The first, in accordance with current practice in most cantons, it to disclose tax-neutrally and subsequently depreciate existing hidden reserves when the status is abandoned (current law step-up; disclosure solution). The second is application of a special tax rate (special tax rate solution).

Current law step-up (disclosure solution)


The current law step-up allows companies to effectively disclose hidden reserves formed, or self-generated value created (goodwill), under a privileged tax regime in the tax balance sheet immediately before the privileged status is abandoned. For this purpose, a taxed hidden reserve is disclosed in the tax balance sheet without the need to make a corresponding entry under commercial law. In the following tax periods, the taxed hidden reserve can be depreciated tax-effectively, taking into account the overall limitation of measures. (The depreciation period is defined according to cantonal regulations or depreciation rates published by the Swiss Federal Tax Administration, respectively).

Special tax rate solution


The special tax rate solution provides for separate taxation over five years of the portion of the profit based on the realization of hidden reserves and goodwill, which were previously not taxed under the old regime. The maximum amount is limited to such hidden reserves available at the time of the status change. The amount must be recorded in a decree. In contrast to the practice under the current law step-up, the special tax rate solution does not result in the disclosure of hidden reserves in the tax balance sheet. This eliminates the issue of recognizing deferred tax assets.

Outlook


In case of a Public’s “Yes” on 19 May 2019, it is planned that the reform will come into force on 1 January 2020. The regulation concerning a temporary special tax rate solution is to come into force immediately after the referendum vote. The cantons will thus be able to make use of this measure early in order to mitigate the de facto tax increase for those companies that plan to waive their cantonal tax status earlier in time.

In the event of rejection, the Federal Council would have to act quickly and ensure that the tax regimes criticized by the OECD and the EU are abolished – potentially together with increasing the cantonal share of federal tax revenue and adjusting the fiscal equalization system. Otherwise, it would hardly be possible to prevent Switzerland from being blacklisted by the EU.

Next steps

The local tax experts of KPMG would be glad to discuss the impact of TRAF and the potential relief of the transitional measures. Please contact KPMG Lugano to schedule a meeting with us.

Cover Image © Seb Mooze – Unsplash

Sono 16 i laureati della quarta edizione del CAS Commodity Professional, una formazione organizzata dalla Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA), in collaborazione con la Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) e la Hochschule di Lucerna. Le lezioni si sono tenute in modo alternato a Lugano e a Zugo e hanno potuto fornire agli studenti una visione globale del settore delle materie prime e degli strumenti necessari per lavorare in questo ambito. Novià di quest’anno: un Modulo si è tenuto al passo del San Gottardo,  Alla cerimonia, che ha avuto luogo presso la sala del Consiglio comunale di Lugano, sono intervenuti il presidente della LCTA, Thomas Patrick, il presidente della ZCA Martin Fasser, il segretario generale della LCTA Marco Passalia e il segretario della ZCA Martin Spillmann.

Fotografie © Loreta Daulte

Le problematiche attuali nel commercio internazionale, il Kazakistan come potenza per le commodities e centro finanziario euroasiatico. Questi gli argomenti principali trattati durante la serata di apertura della Commodity Trade Finance Conference, organizzata con successo dalla Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) in collaborazione con il gruppo londinese GTR Exporta Group. Oltre 200 persone hanno partecipato alla due giorni di incontri che ha riunito al Palazzo dei Congressi di Lugano i principali attori del settore del commercio di materie prime e del commercio internazionale.

Mercoledì 26 settembre, la conferenza “Current Issues in International Trade & Kazakhstan – Commodities Powerhouse and Eurasian Financial Hub”, organizzata dalla LCTA, ha attirato aziende locali e internazionali interessate ad approfondire queste tematiche. Ad aprire la serata – dopo il breve saluto iniziale del presidente della LCTA Thomas Patrick – una brillante intervista da parte di Pietro Poretti, Responsabile Divisione sviluppo economico, Città di Lugano, a Niall Meagher, Direttore esecutivo del Centro consultivo sul diritto dell’Organizzazione Mondiale del Commercio. Il confronto tariffario in corso sta agitando i mercati, creando volatilità e incertezza. Nonostante le molteplici minacce di ritorsioni, l’economia globale non sta cadendo nel caos. Essendo l’OMC l’unico strumento multilaterale che disciplina il commercio internazionale, si è cercato di rispondere alla domanda: può l’Organizzazione Mondiale del Commercio (OMC), ora nel suo secondo decennio di esistenza, forzare efficacemente i Governi affinché giochino secondo le regole?

Secondo momento saliente della serata è stato l’intervento di Temirlan Mukhanbetzhanov, Manging Director, Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), il quale ha sottolineato il ruolo sempre più ponderante del Kazakistan come potenza per le commodities e centro finanziario della zona euroasiatica. I commercianti di merci conoscono il Kazakistan per le sue abbondanti riserve di combustibili fossili e vasti giacimenti di minerali e metalli tra cui uranio, zinco e rame. Nel 2018 il paese ha lanciato ufficialmente l’Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). Con l’inglese come lingua principale e titoli di stato e diritto societario, l’AIFC incarna l’approccio riformista e lungimirante del governo kazako e mira a diventare il primo hub finanziario dell’Eurasia.

Giovedì 27 settembre si è tenuta la quinta edizione della “Commodity Trade Finance Conference” condotta da Marco Passalia, General Secretary – LCTA. Le tematiche centrali della conferenza sono stati le sfide, le opportunità e gli sviluppi che influenzano l’attuale mercato globale delle materie prime, affrontando le preoccupazioni in merito alle politiche commerciali protezionistiche e le “guerre commerciali”, il cambiamento delle aziende attive nel commercio di materie prime, gli sforzi per raggiungere una maggiore sostenibilità, l’emergere di nuove piattaforme di finanziamento e il rischio delle operazioni. L’attenzione è stata poi spostata sulle principali materie prime trattate dalla aziende ticinesi, ovvero metalli, carbone ma anche prodotti energetici (petroliferi, gas naturale e elettricità).

Una giornata molto intensa e ricca di spunti che anche quest’anno ha portato a Lugano ospiti da tutto il mondo. Una conferenza attesa dai traders ma anche dagli esperti del settore finanziario poiché dà l’opportunità, nel contesto dei diversi panel, di stabilire delle interessanti occasioni di networking e di conoscenze per poter sviluppare il proprio business.

Con lo slancio del successo della due giorni dedicata al settore delle commodities, la LCTA si prepara per la sesta edizione luganese della Commodity Trade Finance Conference nel 2019.

Commodity traders’ dinner on Lugano lake

On June 14, 2018, members and friends of the Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) attended in large numbers the annual “Commodity Traders’ Dinner”, one of the most important event that the LCTA organises in the year.

The first part of the event took place at the Convention Centre in Lugano and was followed by a networking dinner on Lugano Lake.
Sponsor of the event – Euler Hermes, our precious partner. Special guests of the evening were Gilbert Wright – Co-Founder and Managing Partner for Maritime & Commodity Services, LLC (MCS) and Marine Inspection, LLC (MIL) – and Lisa McGoey, the Executive Director of the Mississippi Valley Trade & Transport Council and has been since 2011. Mr. Wright has over 35 years’ experience in the international commodity inspection and shipping logistics industries and gave a speech on the overview of the Commodity Traffic & the Challenges along the Mississippi River. Mrs. McGoey has over 20 years’ experience in the maritime industry and transportation industry as a paralegal in several different law firms in the New Orleans area and presented the Mississippi Valley Trade & Transport Council. It was a great occasion to deepen different topics but also a unique opportunity to meet in the area of Lugano commodity traders as well as representatives of banks, insurances, fiduciaries, shipping companies and other services providers.

CAS Commodity Professional education opportunity in commodity trading      

Study content

Commodity trading and related services have grown significant in the Swiss economy, and they are expanding even further. These companies are in search of talents.

In cooperation with the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts, the Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) and the Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) offer a certificate of advanced studies CAS for commodity professionals. The certificate programme will provide attendants with a thorough understanding of the commodity industry and its characteristics. The course work will provide students from the commodity sector with detailed skills, students from commodity service providers the ability to better understand their clients, and give all graduates tools to enhance their careers. The CAS Commodity Professional combines theoretical know-how with hands-on learning experience provided by accomplished guest speakers. This programme prepares the participants to take on management or specialist functions within the commodity industry.

  • Basics of Commodity & Geopolitical Dynamics
  • Commodities within the value chain
  • Shipping and Transport
  • Trade Finance
  • Basics of Risk Management
  • Legal Aspects and Compliance

Scholarship amount: CHF 7,900 (CAS tuition fee)

Application requirements:

To apply to the LCTA scholarship, applicants must fulfil the following criteria:

  1. Employee of a company, which is member of the LCTA
  2. Tertiary education (as minimum level)
  3. Good marks in the previous educations
  4. Multi language. In particular, good knowledge of the English language (fully taught in English)
  5. International skills
  6. Letter of reference from the employer or from a key-person in the commodity trading sector

The scholarship is granted if the following conditions are fulfilled:

  • The student is required to have an 80% attendance at the lessons
  • The student has to pass all the exams
  • The student has to carry out a research on a topic related to the Lugano commodity trading hub (defined by the board of the LCTA)

16 students have graduated on the third edition of the CAS Commodity Professional, a training organized by the Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) and the Zug Commodity Association (ZCA) in cooperation with the Hochschule Luzern. The lessons were held alternately in Lugano and in Zug, and provided the students with a global view of the commodity sector and with tools, that are needed to work in this field. At the ceremony, which took place at the Lugano City Hall, participated the Chairman of LCTA, Thomas Patrick, ZCA Chairman Martin Fasser, the General Secretary of LCTA, Marco Passalia and ZCA Secretary Martin Spillmann .

Blokchain e sicurezza cibernetica sono stati gli argomenti principali della serata di apertura del Commodity Trade Finance Conference organizzata con successo dalla Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) in collaborazione con il gruppo londinese GTR Exporta Group. Oltre 400 persone hanno partecipato alla due giorni di incontri che ha riunito al Palazzo dei Congressi di Lugano i principali attori del settore del commercio di materie prime e del commercio internazionale

Rischi cibernetici sotto la lente

Lunedì 25 settembre, la conferenza “Introducing blockchain and cyber security to commodity trading”, organizzata dalla LCTA e dalla Camera di commercio, dell’industria, dell’artigianato e dei servizi del Cantone Ticino (Cc-Ti) con il sostegno di IntheCyber e KPMG, ha attirato aziende locali e internazionali interessate ad approfondire questa nuova tecnologia cosiddetta dei “blocchi”. Ad aprire la serata – dopo il breve saluto iniziale del presidente della LCTA Thomas Patrick –  una brillante intervista da parte del General Secretary della LCTA Marco Passalia al CEO e fondatore di IntheCyber Paolo Lezzi. Quest’ultimo ha sottolineato come, in fatto di sicurezza cibernetica, purtroppo si reagisce troppo tardi e solamente a seguito di un attacco informatico. “I rischi per le aziende sono troppo spesso sottovalutati” ha dichiarato Lezzi, esperto del settore che nella sua esperienza professionale supporta le aziende e varie istituzioni nella verifica della reale efficacia dei sistemi di difesa adottati e nella loro evoluzione e miglioramento. Tutto ciò proprio alla vigilia dell’ennesima notizia di attacchi cyber ad alcune multinazionali che hanno subito l’intrusione nei loro sistemi informatici e il furto di dati sensibili. Non si è mai quindi troppo prudenti quando si parla di sicurezza cibernetica e di sistemi protetti per le transazioni finanziarie.

La tecnologia dei blocchi si fa strada

La serata è proseguita con una tavola rotonda moderata dall’esperto di HFW Philip Prowse dove si è introdotto, tenendo a mente il fil rouge della cyber security, anche il concetto di blockchain, una tecnologia spesso confusa con la Bitcoin. In realtà, com’è stato sottolineato anche durante la conferenza, la blockchain può essere utilizzata come piattaforma di pagamento nelle transazionali internazionali o come strumento per creare delle monete digitali a partire dall’esempio appunto più conosciuto rappresentato dal Bitcoin o da Ethereum. La sua applicazione non è però necessariamente limitata a questo campo ma può essere ben più generale e aperta in tutti i campi, da quello assicurativo con la creazione di smart contract a quello, ad esempio, dei voti elettronici sicuri. Ospiti della serata, oltre a Paolo Lezzi, anche Gabriele Domenichini, Head of Ventures & Technology di Blockchainlab, Simone Mori, Head of European Affairs di Enel, Lars Schlichting, partner di KPMG e Matteo Somaini, Manager Finance di Duferco. Diverse le visioni e le esperienze con la tecnologia blockchain, da alcuni vista come la soluzione più sicura ed efficace per le transazionali internazionali, per altri invece un sistema ancora da sperimentare in tutte le sua sfaccettature e di difficile implementazione in alcuni campi finanziari e commerciali.

Focus specifico sulle commodities “luganesi”

Dibattiti sulla situazione macroeconomia del settore del commercio di materie prime e prospettive sui mercati futuri nonché analisi dell’andamento delle singole commodities sono stati al centro della quarta edizione del “Commodity Trade Finance Conference”, che ha avuto luogo il giorno successivo sempre al Palazzo dei Congressi. Una giornata molto intensa e ricca di spunti che anche quest’anno ha portato a Lugano ospiti da tutto il mondo. Una conferenza attesa dai traders ma anche dagli esperti del settore finanziario poiché dà l’opportunità, nel contesto dei diversi panel, di stabilire delle interessanti occasioni di networking e di conoscenze per poter sviluppare il proprio business. Dall’intensa giornata è emerso un messaggio positivo poiché in questi mesi sembra vi sia una spinta favorevole per produttori ed investitori. Il settore può infatti contare nuovamente su una certa fiducia nell’emissione dei crediti e nella produzione delle materie prime.

Con lo slancio del successo della due giorni dedicata al settore delle commodities, la LCTA si prepara per la quinta edizione luganese del Commodity Trade Finance Conference nel 2018.

On Tuesday, June 13, the LCTA hosted David Hamod, President & CEO of the National U.S. – Arab Chamber of Commerce (www.nusacc.org), who shared some of his personal perspectives on U.S. foreign policy today.

The Chamber (NUSACC) is America’s longest serving organization dedicated to U.S.-Arab business and is widely regarded as the voice of American business in the 22 Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).  The Chamber is an independent, nonpartisan entity that serves more than 25,000 stakeholders and member companies.

NUSACC is the only business entity in the United States that is officially recognized by the League of Arab States and the Union of Arab Chambers of Commerce.  One year ago, in recognition of NUSACC’s contributions, the Chamber received the prestigious “E Award” for Export Service from the President of the United States, the highest recognition that any U.S. entity may receive for supporting export activity.

Your keynote speech to the LCTA was entitled “America’s New Place in the World: A View from Washington.”  What was your message that night?

I suggested that the LCTA should expect to see changes in the traditional role that the United States has played as leader of the global community.  President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy is focused on the national interests of the United States, narrowly defined.  This perspective is consistent with a famous quote by Lord Palmerston in 1848, who posited that nations have no permanent friends or permanent allies, only permanent interests.

In a nutshell, President Trump is redefining America’s interests.  In my opinion, he is making it clear that the world should no longer look to the United States to take the lead on such global issues as free trade, climate change, human rights, peacekeeping, the fight against diseases, and perhaps even security.

What are the implications of this?

An ancient Chinese proverb says, “Watch what you wish for, because you might just get it.”  In other words, President Trump may be successful in redefining America’s position on these global issues, but the USA’s shrinking role may well have unintended consequences.  For example, the President’s decisions to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership and to withdraw from the Paris climate accord have opened the door to China to assume leadership positions on both of these issues.  Personally, I’m not convinced that letting China define these critical global issues is in the best interests of the United States or Europe.

Aristotle is associated with horror vacui, the concept that nature abhors a vacuum.  In recent years, the USA has had some experience with this, most notably in the Syrian tragedy.  By “leading from the rear,” the Obama Administration effectively invited Russia to become a major player in the Middle East, a decision that will have foreign policy reverberations for decades to come.

On the other side of the coin, making bold moves can also have unintended consequences, right?

That’s absolutely right.  A good example of this is the proposed travel ban on certain Muslim countries.  I understand the security reasons for this, of course, but the ban is also having a ‘chilling’ effect on tourism, education, health care, and other American sectors that depend heavily on visitors coming from around the world, including the MENA region.

As I suggested in my LCTA speech, this travel ban and the immigration debate are striking a nerve in the United States because they fly in the face of a national ethos: that everybody deserves a chance to realize their dreams in America.  Ninety-eight percent of Americans owe their presence in the USA to immigration, which gave their ancestors an opportunity to start their lives all over again in the New World.  America was built on the strength of its ethnic communities, including Muslims, which is an important part of what Made America Great in the first place.

Any final comments for our readers?

I was very honored to speak to the LCTA, and I want to thank my longtime friend, LCTA President Tom Patrick, for that opportunity.  Next time I come to Lugano, I want to bring my family with me so that they may also enjoy your community’s outstanding hospitality!

Roberto Grassi, David Hamod, Thomas Patrick, Luca Albertoni e Marco Passalia

Cover image © Luke Michael – Unsplash

A good occasion of visibility for companies active in the energy efficiency sector

From June 10th to September 10th 2017, Astana (the capital of Kazakhstan) is hosting the international exhibition EXPO 2017, under the slogan “Future Energy”. The choice of the theme shows how much consideration Kazakhstan gives to global important topics, such as environmental approach, renewable energies and energy efficiency.

The main purpose of the event is to question people’s responsibility, to promote a discussion and to develop a knowledge enabling people to plan and control the use of energy on our planet and reducing our impact on the environment. 100 countries and 10 international associations are expected to take part.

The Swiss Confederation is going to participate to the Expo with a Swiss Pavilion (under the supervision of “Presence Switzerland”, the federal organization in charge of the promotion of Switzerland’s image abroad).

Ticino has important relations with Kazakhstan and, for that reason, the Chamber of commerce, industry, handicrafts, and services of Canton Ticino (Cc-Ti) and the Lugano Commodity Trading Association (LCTA) decided to take part to the Expo. The two organizations are coordinating several events at the Swiss Pavilion from September 6th to September 8th2017, in cooperation with the Canton and the City of Lugano. The purpose of the project is to develop the relationship among, from one side, Ticino, Cc-Ti, LCTA and the City of Lugano, and, from the other side, Kazakhstan. Companies coming from Ticino, and active not only in Switzerland, but also internationally, will have the possibility to present their activities during conferences and seminars.

All the companies, active in the renewable energy sectors or related ones (such as energy efficiency, clean technology, and so on), are invited to take part to the Ticino project. The participants will have the benefit of showing off at an international level, and to get in contact with new potential partners (such as clients, agents, etc.) in Central Asia, and above all, in Kazakhstan. Not to mention that they will have the chance of taking advantage of the network built by the Cc-Ti, the LCTA and the City of Lugano in the last years.

For more information: Chiara Crivelli, Head of the International Desk Cc-Ti, crivelli@cc-ti.ch.