{"id":5397,"date":"2020-02-12T09:03:04","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T08:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/?post_type=portfolio&#038;p=5397"},"modified":"2020-02-12T14:33:24","modified_gmt":"2020-02-12T13:33:24","slug":"coronavirus-outbreak-and-impact-eh","status":"publish","type":"portfolio","link":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/portfolio-articoli\/coronavirus-outbreak-and-impact-eh\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus outbreak and the impact on global economy: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id='full_slider_1'  class='avia-fullwidth-slider main_color avia-shadow   avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_section  avia-builder-el-first   container_wrap fullsize'  ><div  class='avia-slideshow av-1nayjuw-b7d0fe6a20c22bf1d2aee81c1d83e4c9 avia-slideshow-featured av_slideshow_full avia-slide-slider av-slideshow-ui av-control-default av-slideshow-manual av-loop-once av-loop-manual-endless av-default-height-applied   avia-slideshow-1' data-slideshow-options=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;slide&quot;,&quot;autoplay&quot;:false,&quot;loop_autoplay&quot;:&quot;once&quot;,&quot;interval&quot;:5,&quot;loop_manual&quot;:&quot;manual-endless&quot;,&quot;autoplay_stopper&quot;:false,&quot;noNavigation&quot;:false,&quot;bg_slider&quot;:false,&quot;keep_padding&quot;:false,&quot;hoverpause&quot;:false,&quot;show_slide_delay&quot;:0}\"  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><ul class='avia-slideshow-inner ' style='padding-bottom: 28.666666666667%;'><li  class='avia-slideshow-slide av-1nayjuw-b7d0fe6a20c22bf1d2aee81c1d83e4c9__0  av-single-slide slide-1 slide-odd'><div data-rel='slideshow-1' class='avia-slide-wrap '   ><div class='av-slideshow-caption av-1nayjuw-b7d0fe6a20c22bf1d2aee81c1d83e4c9__0 caption_fullwidth caption_left'><div class=\"container caption_container\"><div class=\"slideshow_caption\"><div class=\"slideshow_inner_caption\"><div class=\"slideshow_align_caption\"><h2 class='avia-caption-title '  itemprop=\"name\" >NEWS<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"wp-image-3729 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-3729\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home.jpg\" width=\"1500\" height=\"430\" title='sld-home' alt=''  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home-300x86.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home-768x220.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home-1030x295.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home-705x202.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/sld-home-450x129.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n<div id='av_section_1'  class='avia-section av-1jcygd4-5dd3a3b533cd3aff9fd843c251f727e0 main_color avia-section-small avia-no-shadow  avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_slideshow_full  el_before_av_two_third  avia-bg-style-scroll container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-5397'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'><\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_1'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-5397'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e\">\n#top .flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n.flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:30 px 30 px 30 px 30 px;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e av_two_third  avia-builder-el-2  el_after_av_section  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  first flex_column_div  '     ><style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1fqdvoo-45ea57792d2870928d03ccbfbecd7938\">\n#top .av_textblock_section.av-1fqdvoo-45ea57792d2870928d03ccbfbecd7938 .avia_textblock{\ncolor:#477067;\n}\n<\/style>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-1fqdvoo-45ea57792d2870928d03ccbfbecd7938 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock av_inherit_color'  itemprop=\"text\" ><h2><strong>CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK AND THE IMPACT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY:<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-logo-element-container av-1axsj4o-ec68728dffcf1f410df5cbc899b499be av-border-deactivate avia-logo-grid avia-content-slider avia-smallarrow-slider avia-content-grid-active noHover avia-content-slider-even  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock  avia-content-slider1' ><div class='avia-smallarrow-slider-heading '><div class='new-special-heading'><h3 class='av-logo-special-heading-text '>Contribution by<\/h3><\/div><\/div><div class=\"avia-content-slider-inner\"><div class=\"slide-entry-wrap\"><div  class='slide-entry av-2v5uq9-6c4f6d4e9d4c0ed5cba860797d5ea03c flex_column no_margin av_one_fourth real-thumbnail post-entry slide-entry-overview slide-loop-1 slide-parity-odd post-entry-last first'><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eulerhermes.com\/it_CH.html\" data-rel='slide-1' class='slide-image' title=''  target=\"_blank\"  rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class='av-partner-fake-img' style='padding-bottom:61.919504643963%; background-image:url(https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/euler_hermes_lcta_logo.png);'><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-141audk-49150381a4b8a3188e04ef66fd71d1ed '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The hit to China\u2019s GDP y\/y growth caused by 2019-nCoV (Coronavirus) could amount to c. 1pp, mostly over Q1 2020. A recovery should thereafter be possible, based on pent-up production and policy support.<\/p>\n<p>A protracted pause in Chinese activity could be disruptive for certain supply chains such as chemicals, transport equipment, textile and electronics.<\/p>\n<p>If we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>First, the coronavirus outbreak is likely to keep the manufacturing sector in recession in H1 2020. Electronics and computers are most at risk. <\/strong>With the business interruption in China caused by the coronavirus epidemic, \u2014 which has put several sectors at risk of supply chain disruption and lower global demand \u2014 above long-term average stocks could increase further in sectors such as textiles, machinery and transport equipment and commodities. Meanwhile, goods\u2019 shortages are a risk in sectors with below long-term average stocks (electronics, computers). In 2019, companies\u2019 unusually high levels of stocks pushed manufacturing production into recession, notably in the advanced economies.\u00a0 With the stock absorption over the past few months being only partial, the lower global demand and the higher uncertainty are likely to push inventories up in the coming months. Hence, we expect the global manufacturing sector to remain in (shallow) recession in H1 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Second, potential losses of exports of goods and services to China could amount to USD26bn per week as production and trade are paused. We have revised down our global trade growth forecast for 2020 by -0.5pp to +1.3%.\u00a0<\/strong>Hong Kong, the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany are most exposed. This weekly loss is more than the effect of the U.S.-China trade feud in 2019 (0.7pp). In terms of goods, the most exposed countries are Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Germany and the U.S. The cost could be USD18bn weekly.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last, the macroeconomic impact should remain contained (-0.3pp on global GDP growth in Q1 2020 to +2%), if the business interruption in China doesn\u2019t last for more than one month and business activity returns to normal after three months.<\/strong> While we think that the negative spillovers from the coronavirus epidemic will not last for more than three months, we doubt the global economy is strong enough to catch up entirely after the loss, given that the growth acceleration in H2 will be capped by U.S.-driven uncertainty. Overall, we think the recession in the manufacturing sector and global trade in goods will be prolonged into H1. Hence, we have revised our 2020 global GDP growth forecast by -0.1pp to +2.3%, based on a revised forecast for China (+5.6%, i.e. -0.3pp), the Eurozone (+0.9%, i.e. -0.1pp) and several other economies. We expect monetary policies to remain very active, with the ECB and the Fed even more likely to implement another rate cut in H1 2020, given that the \u201cisolation\u201d of China amid the coronavirus outbreak is likely to have strong negative impacts on both trade in goods and services.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_image '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-jv3uujif-c54362ea0b974fc20c74050beaf6065a\">\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-c54362ea0b974fc20c74050beaf6065a img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-c54362ea0b974fc20c74050beaf6065a .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-jv3uujif-c54362ea0b974fc20c74050beaf6065a av-styling- avia-align-left  avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_hr  el_before_av_hr '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-5418 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-5418 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-4.png\" alt='' title='ti-figure-4'  height=\"284\" width=\"478\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-4.png 478w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-4-300x178.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 478px) 100vw, 478px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_image  el_before_av_image '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-jv3uujif-6b586a84c35116083290605e83a5c092\">\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-6b586a84c35116083290605e83a5c092 img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-6b586a84c35116083290605e83a5c092 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-jv3uujif-6b586a84c35116083290605e83a5c092 av-styling- avia-align-left  avia-builder-el-9  el_after_av_hr  el_before_av_hr '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-5421 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-5421 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5-1030x470.png\" alt='' title='ti-figure-5'  height=\"470\" width=\"1030\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5-1030x470.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5-768x351.png 768w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5-705x322.png 705w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ti-figure-5.png 1093w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_image  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-qsnf6g-9cd9a723cc50d04a451a1c7e4b717b34 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><em><strong>Marco Arrighini<\/strong> <\/em><br \/>\n<em>Senior Sales Manager<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Euler Hermes Switzerland<\/strong> | Via A. Adamini 10A | CH-6900 Lugano | Switzerland<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"mailto:marco.arrighini@eulerhermes.com\">marco.arrighini@eulerhermes.com<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eulerhermes.ch\/\">www.eulerhermes.ch<\/a> |\u00a0 t +41 91 922 73 64 | m +41 79 501 43 44<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-jddako-cc2029ad331d205f7ee16de0fc59ba08 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><em>12 February 2020<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>12 February 2020<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[],"portfolio_entries":[21],"class_list":["post-5397","portfolio","type-portfolio","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","portfolio_entries-review-en"],"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio\/5397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/portfolio"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio\/5397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5397"},{"taxonomy":"portfolio_entries","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio_entries?post=5397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}