{"id":3558,"date":"2019-05-02T08:06:53","date_gmt":"2019-05-02T06:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/?post_type=portfolio&#038;p=3558"},"modified":"2019-05-02T08:06:53","modified_gmt":"2019-05-02T06:06:53","slug":"metal-sector-euler-hermes","status":"publish","type":"portfolio","link":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/portfolio-articoli\/metal-sector-euler-hermes\/","title":{"rendered":"METAL SECTOR: CYCLICAL MOMENTUM vs STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id='full_slider_1'  class='avia-fullwidth-slider main_color avia-shadow   avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_section  avia-builder-el-first   container_wrap fullsize'  ><div  class='avia-slideshow av-1nayjuw-790c2ecdef200df18f9d443aefc93b29 avia-slideshow-featured av_slideshow_full avia-slide-slider av-slideshow-ui av-control-default av-slideshow-manual av-loop-once av-loop-manual-endless av-default-height-applied   avia-slideshow-1' data-slideshow-options=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;slide&quot;,&quot;autoplay&quot;:false,&quot;loop_autoplay&quot;:&quot;once&quot;,&quot;interval&quot;:5,&quot;loop_manual&quot;:&quot;manual-endless&quot;,&quot;autoplay_stopper&quot;:false,&quot;noNavigation&quot;:false,&quot;bg_slider&quot;:false,&quot;keep_padding&quot;:false,&quot;hoverpause&quot;:false,&quot;show_slide_delay&quot;:0}\"  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><ul class='avia-slideshow-inner ' style='padding-bottom: 28.666666666667%;'><li  class='avia-slideshow-slide av-1nayjuw-790c2ecdef200df18f9d443aefc93b29__0  av-single-slide slide-1 slide-odd'><div data-rel='slideshow-1' class='avia-slide-wrap '   ><div class='av-slideshow-caption av-1nayjuw-790c2ecdef200df18f9d443aefc93b29__0 caption_fullwidth caption_left'><div class=\"container caption_container\"><div class=\"slideshow_caption\"><div class=\"slideshow_inner_caption\"><div class=\"slideshow_align_caption\"><h2 class='avia-caption-title '  itemprop=\"name\" >NEWS<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"wp-image-4419 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-4419\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/LCTA_img_003-1500x430.jpg\" width=\"1500\" height=\"430\" title='LCTA_img_003' alt=''  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"   \/><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n<div id='av_section_1'  class='avia-section av-1jcygd4-5dd3a3b533cd3aff9fd843c251f727e0 main_color avia-section-small avia-no-shadow  avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_slideshow_full  el_before_av_two_third  avia-bg-style-scroll container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-3558'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'><\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_1'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-3558'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e\">\n#top .flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n.flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:30 px 30 px 30 px 30 px;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_column.av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e{\nmargin-top:0px;\nmargin-bottom:0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-1ie1lg8-c9a357716eed360fb21359d9dde6225e av_two_third  avia-builder-el-2  el_after_av_section  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  first flex_column_div  '     ><style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1fqdvoo-54cd302cf31fbd384609541e98bd16bf\">\n#top .av_textblock_section.av-1fqdvoo-54cd302cf31fbd384609541e98bd16bf .avia_textblock{\ncolor:#477067;\n}\n<\/style>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-1fqdvoo-54cd302cf31fbd384609541e98bd16bf '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock av_inherit_color'  itemprop=\"text\" ><h1><strong>METAL SECTOR: <\/strong><strong><br \/>\nCYCLICAL MOMENTUM vs STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES<\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-logo-element-container av-1axsj4o-ec68728dffcf1f410df5cbc899b499be av-border-deactivate avia-logo-grid avia-content-slider avia-smallarrow-slider avia-content-grid-active noHover avia-content-slider-even  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_hr  avia-content-slider1' ><div class='avia-smallarrow-slider-heading '><div class='new-special-heading'><h3 class='av-logo-special-heading-text '>Contribution by<\/h3><\/div><\/div><div class=\"avia-content-slider-inner\"><div class=\"slide-entry-wrap\"><div  class='slide-entry av-2v5uq9-6c4f6d4e9d4c0ed5cba860797d5ea03c flex_column no_margin av_one_fourth real-thumbnail post-entry slide-entry-overview slide-loop-1 slide-parity-odd post-entry-last first'><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eulerhermes.com\/it_CH.html\" data-rel='slide-1' class='slide-image' title=''  target=\"_blank\"  rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class='av-partner-fake-img' style='padding-bottom:61.919504643963%; background-image:url(https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/euler_hermes_lcta_logo.png);'><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-177b508-d86d061fcd963fb7e58b15f7a1031438 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-5  el_after_av_partner  el_before_av_image '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-jv3uujif-8908c95a8d19eb1afbccb924c51fe093\">\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-8908c95a8d19eb1afbccb924c51fe093 img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-8908c95a8d19eb1afbccb924c51fe093 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-jv3uujif-8908c95a8d19eb1afbccb924c51fe093 av-styling- avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_hr  el_before_av_textblock '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-4415 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-4415 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-300x107.png\" alt='' title='grafico1_eh'  height=\"107\" width=\"300\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-768x274.png 768w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-1030x368.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-705x252.png 705w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh-450x161.png 450w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico1_eh.png 1462w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-141audk-51c67f99a748c4b96d9ca33a328f7537 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>What to Watch?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Global trade momentum and political intervention<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Indications of demand strength, particularly in China, but also in construction and automotive<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Management of overcapacities<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As a whole, after a weak 2018, the outlook for the metals sectors is mixed. Economic trade uncertainty has compounded the problem of slowing metal-consuming industries. Metals is one of the most exposed sectors as far as the impact of protectionism is concerned.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Steel <\/strong>demand growth will weaken considerably as a result of a slowing economy and uncertainties over trade. While there is still growth in the automotive sector, its reduced rate will weigh negatively. At the same time, the outlook for construction, one of the most important end markets, remains mixed despite moderate growth in a number of large markets. Strength from the machinery sector is unlikely to outweigh that.<\/p>\n<p>The World Steel Association forecasts 1.4% y\/y growth for 2019, compared to 3.9% demand growth for 2018. Chinese demand is expected to be flat.<\/p>\n<p>Steel prices continue to reflect overcapacity, while iron ore prices pressure margins. Earnings are still being revised downwards. The current consensus stands at a 14% y\/y earnings decline.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aluminium<\/strong> also presents a patchy picture. There is a risk that the Chinese aluminium market might flip into excess capacity as capacity gets commissioned in despite curbs and Russian producers see sanctions eased. The sector should see demand growth in the order of 3%, according to guidance by some of the major producers for 2019, with aerospace a positive driver. There is potential for a global production deficit, also due to production outages. Yet, margins are tight because of raw material prices, and the scope for aluminium price recovery appears limited.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Copper<\/strong> will to a great degree depend on the success of Chinese stimulus measures. An increase in supply may curb price increases, though, and balance the market. Further USD appreciation will have a negative impact on all metal prices. Margins are likely to compress in the mining sector, due to weak prices, to the tune of 300bps at Ebitda level on 12% y\/y revenue decline in 2019 according to current consensus (source for all consensus data: Bloomberg). Nevertheless, the sector is cash generative, and with net debt standing below 1.0 on average for the global peers, they should be able to deploy such cash into incremental capex, in the order of 5-8%, chiefly going into equipment replacement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Iron ore<\/strong>: A correction is likely after prices have come off a peak in early 2019 and the demand outlook is patchy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Steel companies<\/strong>: Global overcapacity but the high level of import taxes protects some specific markets such as US and Canada.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nonferrous<\/strong>: The sector is cash rich on the back of strong prices. The LME Index has risen 17% in 2018.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-141audk-51c67f99a748c4b96d9ca33a328f7537 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Get our Country Risk Map <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eulerhermes.com\/content\/dam\/onemarketing\/euh\/eulerhermes_com\/erd\/map\/country-map\/2019\/country-risk-map-Q1-2019.pdf\">here<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-jv3uujif-35fd009716a9e3e122bb6d34555aa91a\">\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-35fd009716a9e3e122bb6d34555aa91a img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-jv3uujif-35fd009716a9e3e122bb6d34555aa91a .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-jv3uujif-35fd009716a9e3e122bb6d34555aa91a av-styling- avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_hr '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-4417 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-4417 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-300x211.png\" alt='' title='grafico2_eh'  height=\"211\" width=\"300\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-768x539.png 768w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-1030x723.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-705x495.png 705w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh-450x316.png 450w, https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/grafico2_eh.png 1295w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-12zayjs-6dda0f93ee079f55e01017312ce0743a hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-11  el_after_av_image  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-qsnf6g-9cd9a723cc50d04a451a1c7e4b717b34 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><em><strong>Marco Arrighini<\/strong> <\/em><br \/>\n<em>Senior Sales Manager<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Euler Hermes Switzerland<\/strong> | Via A. Adamini 10A | CH-6900 Lugano | Switzerland<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"mailto:marco.arrighini@eulerhermes.com\">marco.arrighini@eulerhermes.com<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eulerhermes.ch\/\">www.eulerhermes.ch<\/a> |\u00a0 t +41 91 922 73 64 | m +41 79 501 43 44<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-2mawi0-63cf488238a8a25e0bca2631818abcd0 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-13  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-jddako-5b1229c1de49140091219890661fe2a5 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><em>May 2, 2019<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>METAL SECTOR, May 2, 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[],"portfolio_entries":[21],"class_list":["post-3558","portfolio","type-portfolio","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","portfolio_entries-review-en"],"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio\/3558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/portfolio"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio\/3558\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3558"},{"taxonomy":"portfolio_entries","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lcta.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/portfolio_entries?post=3558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}